That's exactly what we will know that the pandemic is over, say experts
Once COVID cases and deaths fall under these numbers, the country will be able to open.
As we have thumbs around a year that the locks started at the US, the Americans are itchy to know when the pandemic will finally be completed. It's hard to predict what date will everything benormalHowever, however, experts have a good idea of the size of COVID cases and the deaths of the country's covidation should fall to consider the pandemic behind us, effectively entering intoEndemic territory Where we would be able to handle Covid a lot as if we make the flu. To see what numbers means that the country can open again, read on and see what you can do once you have got your shot, checkDr. Fauci says it's sure you can do that once you're vaccinated.
The pandemic will be "over" when the numbers correspond to typical flu numbers.
Reach zero covidation cases isalmost impossible,Atlantic Reports in a new in-depth article. But the next best thing isCovid becoming an endemic disease, one that still persists in the community at low levels but often does not inflict serious disease. Once Covid reaches this point, it will be much more manageable.Paul Offit, MD, Director of the Education Center vaccinated at the Philadelphia Children's Hospital, saidAtlantic He thinks that "the doors will open up" when the country sees less than 5,000 new cases a day and less than 100 dead per day.
Several experts agree with the metrics of Offit. "Less than 100 deaths, a day to reflect the typical mortality of influenza in the United States over a typical year - is an appropriate objective"Monica Gandhi, MD, an infectious specialist of UC San Francisco's disease, saidAtlantic. Although these figures are far from zero, this level of risk is "largely acceptable"Joseph Eisenberg, PhD, an epidemiologist at the University of Michigan, saidAtlantic. And for more current Covid news delivered directly to your inbox,Sign up for our daily newsletter.
We are months from these numbers.
If we measure ourselves against the metrics of the flu, we have a long way to go before you can call the pandemic one thing from the past. According to the CDC, the countryThe most recent seven-day average Was 1,975 dead per day, from February 22nd. It is down 36% of 3108 dead two weeks earlier on February 8th to February 8th, if things continue at this rate, it means that it would take 14 more weeks, three and a half months old, to reach less than 100 dead per day. At this rate, we would reach endemic status in early June, but of course, many factors could come into play that affect this estimate. And for more our return to normal, checkThe CDC is about to relax these COVID restrictions, Dr. Fauci says.
Some experts think these numbers should be even lower.
While fewer than 5,000 new cases a day corresponds to the average number of influenza, some experts believe that cases need to fall even lower until we are at ease.normal.Crystal Watson, RDPH, a scholar of health safety at Johns Hopkins University, saidAtlantic That a neutrally diagnosed 0.5 threshold for 100,000 people a day and a test positivity rate of less than one percent at the national level would be better metrics. Watson noted that to consider us in front of the pandemic, we should also connect at least one month of activity as usual in hospitals during which there are no staff or shortage of equipment.
These stricter measures would be even more difficult to reach. The United States reported135.25 new cases for 100,000 people On February 22, according to the CDC, which is down 42% compared to 233.52 new cases by 100,000 reported two weeks before February 8th. If new cases have continued to decline at this rate, it would be 20 weeks-or five months - until Covid reaches endemic status, which would put us in mid-July. And for more on life after vaccination, checkDr. Faisci will still not go to these 3 places now that he is vaccinated.
The comparison is not perfect, but it is the closest that we must predict the end of Covid.
The comparison of COVID numbers with the number of oils is not a perfect system because COVID deaths are reported to the public health authorities, while influenza deaths are estimates based on national surveillance data from national surveillance. Statistical models, explainedAtlantic. In addition, covidation tests considerably are made only influenza tests, which means positive cases are difficult to compare. However, many experts plan to measure Covid against the flu to be the best metric we have for the moment as a predictor of the end of the pandemic. To see when experts think that the virus will start to dissipate, checkCovid will be "mainly party" on that date, Dr. Johns Hopkins says.
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