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Given that the first known COVID-19 cases appeared in Wuhan, China in December 2019, more than 7 million cases of highly infectious viruses around the world and more than 404,000 deaths at the publication of the story you read. While researchers are blurring to develop an effective vaccine, the numbers continue to increase at a surprising pace.A new document claims that if the pandemic continues to worsen, the impact could also be devastating as the 1918 influenza pandemic - which killed 50-100 million globally.

"A strong suppression effort must continue"

According to the document, "Active Case Assignment with Case Management: The key to the fight against the Pandemic of Covid-19", published in the Medical ReviewThe lancetChina has managed to contain a rigorous acute respiratory syndrome associated with Covid (SARS-COV-2) and failed to stop Aboriginal transmission. However, "a strong suppression effort must continue to prevent the restoration of Community transmission of import cases."

The researchers fear that China is at risk of dealing with a second wave of coronaviruses, because the majority of the country's population remains sensitive to virus, without immunity.

"There is no known continuing community transmission, but the risk of local transmission introduced by internationally imported cases remains a major concern. Almost all of China's population remains likely from SAR-COV-2 and , therefore, risk of 19 epidemic covidation, "they say.

According to the authors, non-pharmaceutical interventions (PPE) as well as the search for cases, isolation and contact tracing will be required to reduce the numbers.

"The experience of influenza A (generally known as influenza) is that IPL (without case discovery, isolation and contact tracing) can reduce the spread of 50%, which is potentially insufficient to mitigate the critical medical needs caused by COVID-19 epidemic, "they write. "With the transmission of ongoing viruses, the CVIV-19 pandemic could continue indefinitely until an effective response from the vaccine."

If this happens, we could watch a number of overall deaths similar to what we lived in 1918, judging by cases of cases of cases (CFR). According to their research, the Seasonal Influenza CFR is about 0.1% -Inignifying compared to COVID-19 CFR, or 5.9% in the province of Hubei, China and 0.98% in all Other regions of China. .

The confinement is the key

"High Caleloads Stress Systems Systems and can lead to more deaths if health care systems become overwhelmed. If the Covid-19 pandemic is aggravated, its effect could approach the 1918 H1N1 influenzemic pandemic, which had a CFR. With more than 2% and causing 50-100 million deaths around the world, "says researchers.

This makes the key of confinement methods. "We believe that the conclusion and case management, with the identification and quarantine of narrow contacts, are important and essential confinement measures in the way of China forward," they writes.

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