The meteorologist says that hurricanes "will become stronger and more easily" this season
More evidence shows that the conditions of the Niña will form and influence storms this year.
It is sure to say that even to face a single devastating storm is enough for a bad season of hurricanes. But unfortunately, growing evidence suggest that we could be in Particularly active year For the Atlantic cyclones. In addition to being larger, experts warn that data show that hurricanes "will also become stronger and more easily" during the next season thanks to development conditions. Read the rest to see how it could affect your summer and why some meteorologists are so worried.
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The latest long -term forecasts provide that there will be more hurricanes than usual this year.
Months before the start of the hurricane season, some experts already warn that it could be a difficult year . THE Long -term forecasts Released by the Colorado State University (CSU) on April 4 plans that the activity of the tropical cyclone will be 170% of the average season in the coming months. AE0FCC31AE342FD3A1346EBB1F342FCB
The models show that there will probably be an increase compared to the highly active season of last year. The forecasts indicate that 23 named storms will form, well above the historical average of the 14.4 cyclones which generally reach this status each year. This prediction includes 11 hurricanes, five of which could be considered "major" in category 3 or more - realizing the annual averages of 7.2 and 3.2, respectively.
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Scientists expect the Niña to be formed in the Pacific, which facilitates the development of storms.
One of the main reasons why this year could see so many Atlantic storms has to do with a change in the Pacific. According to a new report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), warmer waters than the average off the coast of South America seem to give way to what is called the Oscillation El Niño-Southern (ENSO). If the trends continue, this means that the conditions of the Niña will form - what meteorologists may emphasize Bad news for prospects .
"La Niña generally leads to a season of more active hurricanes", " Van denton , Chief Meteorologist of the local Caroline of North WGHP, explained in a recent article. "The lower jets associated with the Niña produce less wind shear for tropical systems, allowing them to develop and train more easily."
The latest report indicates that there is 60% chance that the Niña can develop at the start of the hurricane season between June and August. The chances then continue to increase each month over the season, reaching 80% by August and 86% by October. Compared, there is a 13% chance of neutral conditions in the last official month of the hurricanes season.
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Record temperatures of the ocean surface will also generate more tropical storms and hurricanes.
The future change under the conditions will remove a Key protective element This prevented the active hurricane season from last year from generating more than a few storms that in fact marked landing.
"Last season, the temperatures of extra-chainur water from the Atlantic were partially canceled by the somewhat hostile El Niño model created by the lukewarm water strip through the Equatorial Pacific to the south of Hawaii," Bryan Norcross , a hurricane specialist at Fox Weather, said in an update. "The air which rises from this large hot water area has helped create a steering model on the tropical Atlantic which has removed most of the strong storms in the United States and the Caribbean."
In addition to the next to come, other key indicators indicate a brutal season of hurricanes. Scientists noted that current conditions have created reasons for forming fertile storms.
"Ocean water temperatures in the tropical and eastern Atlantic are incredibly hot - the hottest ever recorded at that time of the year," said Norcross. "Extra-chausing water in the spring is generally translated into temperatures above normal at the heart of the hurricanes season, so the chances favor storms that have access to additional energy this year."
Certain changes could also affect the weather next winter.
Although the hurricanes season is a more urgent concern, the new data could also suggest that there will be significant impacts on the weather for the coming months.
The effects of El Niño conditions on winter conditions provide very wet conditions on the west coast and south while leaving the northwest, the midwest, the plains and the northeast states with snowfall much less What usual, reports Fox Weather. And while a large part of this was exposed this year with torrential storms Beating California, a change to the Niña will bring the opposite.
Those who live in the northern parts of the United States could see more snow and rain next winter, reversing light and relatively without flakes this year. Meanwhile, those who live in the South and California will generally see a return to dry conditions.
