New forecasts predict the very active hurricane season - how it will affect you
Experts warn that recent changes could suggest more frequent and destructive storms.
Like snow -capped winters and summer heat, each season of hurricanes can behave very differently from the one before it. And even if we can't do anything to stop a severe storm From the approach, scientists can always use data to get a better idea of what we can expect in the coming months. Unfortunately, the news is not always good: a new long -range forecast predicted this year could see a very active hurricane season. Read the rest to see why scientists say that recent changes are "not good news".
In relation: The new spring forecasts show which American regions will be warmer and more humid this year .
A historically strong El Niño begins to show signs of weakening.
This winter has not lacked extreme time, and some can be Attributed to El Niño . The periodic phenomenon occurs each Two to seven years old When surface temperatures in the peaceful ocean off the coast of South America decrease above the average, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
This famous change affects weather conditions in the United States and elsewhere. According to California Coastal Commission, record precipitation this winter, snowfall and floods in California fall in accordance with the other years of El Niño for the region. It was also historically strong, ranking among the Top Five El Niños never recorded , Reports Axios.
However, new information shows that the conditions are starting to change, which could prepare the ground for other important weather impacts.
In relation: Are the predicted generalized breakdowns for 2024 - Do they hit your region?
La Niña is likely to develop in a few months, which could amplify the Storms of the Atlantic.
Although it can be partly responsible for generating more extreme weather conditions, El Niño is also useful for keeping other storms at a distance. Last year, Ocean record temperatures In the Atlantic Ocean, helped fuel a very active hurricane season. But thanks to the shear of the wind generated by lukewarm water conditions in the Pacific, only one hurricane apart USA today reports.
However, this same protection will probably not be in place this year. New data show that El Niño’s warm waters are starting to cool quickly and could be replaced by colder water than average in a few months, inaugurating a phase of the Niña of the region's cycle, by USA today . These conditions eliminate the shear of the wind which prevents storms from forming and reaching the coast.
According to David ZIERDEN , Climatologist of Florida State, current forecasts show 75% or more likely that the Niña conditions develop during the hurricanes season, which could tip over the long -range forecasts to predict a very active year for storms.
In relation: Live in these 10 places? You are most at risk of "extreme winter time".
Combined with surface temperatures from the Record Atlantic Ocean, it is not a "good news" for the hurricanes season.
And it is not only to change the temperatures of the Pacific which could also make it a bad season of hurricanes. Atlantic waters off the coast of Africa provide fuel to build more powerful and frequent storms. According to Dunion of Jason , Meteorologist at the University of Miami and the Raivans Research Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the region could be considered USA today .
Dunion says that readings show that temperatures in this area are already one to three degrees Celsius warmer than the average. He warned that starting from these heights before spring could mean that the conditions will become more disastrous.
The combination of the two precursors could prepare for a hard year. "We may have extremely hot surface temperatures, especially in the main development region (hurricane), and the prospect that the Niña is in place," said Zierden USA today . "This is not good news for the hurricane season."
It may be too early to call this year, but other data indicate a more important problem.
Even in the face of growing evidence, some researchers hold the alarm. In its recent prospects, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said that a "spring prediction barrier" was more difficult to determine if Niña conditions Would develop in time to have an impact on the generation of storm and hurricane, reports Axios. But the organization has also cited other problems related to climate change that could be at stake. AE0FCC31AE342FD3A1346EBB1F342FCB
"Ocean surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific clearly reflect El Niño. But sea surface temperatures in other parts of the globe have been constantly high and unusually high in the past 10 months," said OMM secretary general Celeste Saulo said in a press release. "The sea surface temperature in January 2024 was by far the highest recorded for January. This is worrying and cannot be explained by El Niño alone."
Other experts point out that if the greater perspectives may indicate more storms, it still does not provide details that could determine a really active season. "The problem is that we all live in the small image, and they simply do not tell us what could happen or where it would happen exactly where we live," Alan Sealls , a retired television meteorologist and auxiliary professor at the University of Alabama in the South, said USA today .
However, some officials warn coastal residents to prepare for an upcoming brutal season, noting that even a storm for a slower season could be catastrophic in an area. "You cannot hang your hat with hope, you hang your hat to be prepared," Mike Steele , director of communications for the office of the governor of Louisiana, the office of internal security and emergency preparation, said USA today .
