The "very active" hurricanes season expected this year
More evidence seems to suggest that storms could be particularly bad in 2024.
Have an idea of what comes in terms of severe weather is always a good thing, but it is particularly important with regard to the hurricane season. This is why meteorologists analyze the conditions and sort data to set up long -range forecasts and try to get a better idea of the intensity of a special year. But although the prospects can change, there is now more evidence to expect a season of "very active" hurricanes this year. Read the rest to see what the data say and which parts of the United States could be the most affected.
In relation: The new spring forecasts show which American regions will be warmer and more humid this year .
The current conditions of El Niño generally remove the training of hurricanes.
"" El Niño "has become one of the most recognizable meteorological terms, thanks to its periodic reappearance of titles and forecasts. The phenomenon returns both to seven years when the warmer oceanic surface temperatures develop in the Pacific off the coast of South America, according to the national ocean and atmospheric administration (NOAA).
Most people know El Niño because of the time it tends to cause in the United States, it means more humid and rainy weather in the south and southeast and warmer and darker in the northeast when The Pacific Jet-Jet is drawn further south.
But many may not realize that it also maintains other types of distance time, including hurricanes. And although current conditions can suggest a quieter year for the Atlantic storms, there can be a radical change on the horizon.
In relation: "Prolonged winter" can keep things cold in these regions, predict meteorologists .
Long -range forecasts predict the conditions of the Niña to replace El Niño this summer.
Meteorologists are now starting to ring the alarm that 2024 could be a more difficult year for hurricanes. The first piece of evidence implies a radical change in the Pacific, with Niña conditions - Or the surface temperatures of the colder ocean - reducing El Niño to the second half of the hurricane season this summer, reports Accuweather. AE0FCC31AE342FD3A1346EBB1F342FCB
"The second half of the hurricanes season is probably very active, because the conditions will be more favorable to tropical systems", " Paul Pastelok , a long -range meteorological expert with Accuweather, predicted.
Historical evidence shows that these conditions can accelerate the formation of storms in the Atlantic. The most active seasons in history took place in 2005 and 2020, the twice when the Niña was formed quickly and when it was already in place, by Accuweather.
In relation: Live in these 10 places? You are most at risk of "extreme winter time" .
Hot Atlantic Ocean temperatures could make matters worse.
While colder waters in the Pacific help stimulate more dangerous storms , another set of conditions in the Atlantic could also feed them at the same time. Data show that ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin are already at levels observed in July, reports Accuweather.
Meteorologists say that these readings should only increase when the air temperature increases during the hottest months, providing more fuel to produce stronger and more numerous hurricanes. Such conditions could also allow hurricanes to continue to accelerate until they reach land, increasing the probability that they are destructive.
Unfortunately, this could put certain regions of the United States in a particularly precarious position during the hurricanes season.
"We expect the Gulf coast, especially the Texas coast, more at risk of direct impacts of a tropical system this year," said Pastelok.
The models could still change - or the season could start early.
Due to the warmer Atlantic temperatures, long -range forecasts also warn that storms could start developing and arriving before the official start of the hurricanes season on June 1. According to Accuweather, this has occurred seven times in the last decade.
However, some meteorologists also emphasize that incoming information could still mean a Change from perspectives .
"Of course, there is still a certain uncertainty in the temperatures of the sea surface," Adam Lea , PHD, a climate physicist at TropicalStormrrisk.com, said in an interview with Fox Weather on January 29. You can't exclude this completely. ""
However, he nevertheless pointed out how this year's evidence already accumulated: "For the moment, it is more likely that improbable than the temperatures of the sea surface in the tropical Atlantic are warmer than the average . Maybe not as hot as they were recently, but even warmer than the average. "
