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The United States has reached four million cases of COVID, one million of which have been reported in the last 15 days. The disturbing overvoltage has been motivated bymajor epidemics In populated states such as California, Texas and Florida, who have become the new epicenter of the pandemic. But many other states also have reason to worry. You have probably read what states should beLocking back, based on evaluations of a variety of experts in medical health and public health. TheCOVID Risk Level Card Of the Harvard Global Health Institute (HGHI), for example, breaks down each state into one of the four categories of color-coded risk level (green, yellow, orange and red) depending on their number of new cases per day . According to the evaluation of Harvard researchers,Once a state reaches 25 new cases for 100,000 people a day, it's time to stop. "Once a community reaches the level of red risk,Orders to stay at home become needed Again, "researchers note.

At the time this article has been published,11 states were at that time: Florida (58.6 new cases per 100,000 people); Louisiana (46.8); Mississippi (41.1); Nevada (38.0); Arizona (37.8); Alabama (37.1); Texas (36.9); South Carolina (35.2); Georgia (32.9); Tennessee (31.1); and Idaho (31.0).

But why 25 new cases per 100,000 people indicate that a state should beInstitute home stay orders again? During a call with press on July 24,Thomas Tsai, MD, Assistant Professor at theDepartment of Health Policy and ManagersT at Harvard T.h. Chan Public Health School, explained the reasoning ofBetter life.

"The cases are difficult because they are very influenced or potentially biased byHow aggressive do you test, "Said Tsai." That's why we have aSeparate dashboard for what positive test rate should be."

Tsai noted that the Document of July 14 disclosed from the White House showed theirBarometer for a "red zone" was similar. "They examine the combination of the number of new cases as well as the positive test rate," Tsai said. TheCut out of the White House for the "Red Zone" is more than 100 new cases for 100,000 people a week and / or a 10% test positive rate.

Corn,Saskia Popescu, PhD, aInfectious epidemiologist of diseases In Arizona, saysBetter lifeThat "something like percent positive can be misleading if there is not enough test." According to Tsai, the HGHI sees a positive test rate as a complex marker to depend only without looking at the complete picture. "It really depends on what theThe test strategy of this state is. Do they simply try to make up for a growing number of cases in a community compared to a truly robust monitoring network? Tsai said.

Tsai acknowledged thatmortality rate May seem to be the obvious choice of measuring the situation of the state situation. But it is not always the best indicator. "We planned to look at mortality, which is obviously the most objective measure of COVID-19," he said.

The Institute of Metric and Health Assessment (IHME) at the University of Washington, for example, projected theThe death of the coronavirus of death will take over the United States. for many months. They suggest that the country will have to impose orders at home when death per day reach 8 people per million people.

"The problem with mortality, as we saw in recent weeks, several months is that it's a lot of adelay indicator"Said Tsai." There are even delays in how mortality is reported. "

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In the end, Tsai said the HGHI dashboard was an effort to collaborate with researchers many different teams across the country to show the level of risk of COVID of each state. "The new cases were in some ways the most intuitive of the public to understand. It was the one who has reported most," he said. "So that led the answer categories."

According to Popescu, state officials should consider a series of COVID-related factors, including the above-mentioned positive test rate and the mortality rate, as well as the rate of infection, hospitalizations and the number of tests carried out in order to determineAnother lock is necessary. "It's hard to choose one because they all share an important piece to understand the real situation," she said. "Most often, I see a lot of people focus on hospitalizations and infection rates, but also a rate of positivity. Hospitalizations and deaths are good indicators for health capacity, while tests and positive rates give an overview of the community. "

But if you see that your state reaches only 25 new cases per 100,000 per day, it may be time to consider quarantined again. And for more things about that, check The CDC has just passed this major change to its guidelines .