The Covid test myth, you have to stop believing, the epidemiologist says
Your Coronavirus test results are probably more specific than you think.
TheCoronavirus Pandemic caused worry of concern About everything - and this includes concerns about COVID tests. Although these tests were to make us relief because they let us know who is infected and who is not, many people are worried about the possibility of false positives andfalse negatives. There have been many real examples of people incorrectly testing their real diagnosis. But these inaccurate results may not be as widespread as some people think. In fact, an epidemiologist says thatthinking that you will get a fake positive is the major covid test test that you have to stop believing.
According to the Australian epidemiologistGideon Meyerowitz-Katzhe is widely distributedassert that 90% of all POSITIVE COVID-19 tests are actually false positive.
"This has serious consequences, the story goes, because it means that it means virtually no case of illness in the country and that the government is lying to all," wrote Katz for his popular health blog. "What is, to be blunt, totally false."
The mainTest used to diagnose COVID infection is a polymerase chain reaction test (PCR), which is usuallymade by a nasal buffer or throat. According to Katz, this type of test has many advantages, but also some weaknesses.
"The test has a problem withIdentify people who are in the early stages of infection"He wrote." It is because it can be difficult to get enough viruses on a cotton swab to replicate it in the test, which means that people who have not been infected about one or two days ago may not be positive when tested. "
Therefore, the probability of a false negative with a PCR Covid test is actually quite high, with KATZ believing that 60% of the tests could be false negative. But that's why many places "will withdraw you if you arealways have symptoms after a few daysEven if your initial test was negative, "he says.
False positives, on the other hand, are another story. Katz says in terms of PCR tests (which has existed for decades), the "average number of false positives has been extremely well calculated". And various research around the world have determined theFalse positive rate in COVID PCR tests Be about 1 out of 1,000 or less, not 90%.
"In other words, it's incredibly rare for a COVID-19 test thatreturns positive to be a false positive. Almost incredible from. This happens, but very rarely, especially because many tests are confirmed [or] running twice, "wrote Katz.
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Break this in visible number, Katz gives the example of a population of about 50 out of 1,000People are infected by Covid And then they are all tested with PCR tests. For the 950 people who do not have the virus, you will only get one positive test. For the 50 people who have the virus, you will miss only one person. This translates into 49 genuine positives outside the test group. And that means "in this case, 98% of all the positives are real positive, with only 1/49 tests being a false positive," katz explained.
And it works even if there were a small number of people infected because "the specific specific specificity of PCR tests means that you have almost never more false positives than real positives," Katz explained. If the infected population was only 50 out of 10,000 people, you'll always find 49 real positives and 10 false positives - resulting in a rate of 83% real positive on all positives. But in reality, there will never beMany people have tested who does not have the virus, because most countries "target tests in those with symptoms and who think they could be sick."
"More widely, it's simply wrong to suggest that most of the positive tests for Covid-19 are false positives. In reality, the simple truth is that the most positive tests are just that: positive," wrote Katz. And for more myths of Covid, discoverThe biggest myth on the Covid vaccine you need to stop believing.