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Until the moment when disease control and prevention centers (CDC) agreed that the coronavirus had reached pandemic status, college students around the beaches flooded by the honor of a long-standing tradition: the Spring break. Many health experts grimaced as photographs and videos of young adults partying in large groups, not practicing any social distancing, which began circulating on the Internet.

Now, researchers have revealed how the celebrations of spring break concerned the global health crisis, and their findings have the least say.

According to the published research of the State University entitled"Contribution of college students to the propagation of local Covid-19: Evidence from the University Spring Break Timing"The circuit breakers were responsible for the propagation of the virus in a major way.

Growth rates culminated two weeks later

"We find that the increase in case growth rates culminated two weeks after returning to Campus," saidPaul Niekamp, a professor of economics in theMiller College of Business, explains in a press release accompanying his research. "In accordance with the propagation second to more vulnerable populations, we find an increase in mortality growth rates that reached four to five weeks after the return of students."

Niekamp, ​​who led the study with Daniel Manggrum, PhD. Candidate in the Department of Economic at the University of Vanderbilt, gathered data on 1,326 four-year universities across the country that register more than 7.5 million students. They examined the impact of increased journeys by students (via GPS Pings) on the growth rates of the Covid-19 case and mortality in the United States.

They found a significant correlation between coronavirus cases and a spring break activity. For example, counties with early students of spring failure had higher confirmed case growth rates than counties with fewer students. In addition, the increase in cases culminated two weeks after its return on campus - like the virus tends to have an incubation period up to two weeks. Then, four to five weeks after the return of students, a secondary propagation to more vulnerable populations has culminated.

Those who have traveled airports - New York City and Florida destinations have contributed more to the spread of Covid-19 than the average student. Finally, it is interesting to note that there was no major evidence of students who took cruises that contributed to the spread of the community.

The researchers noted that schools with earlier spring breaks - where students returned to campus "have faced large inflows of students back potentially infected before the suspension of classes in person, while areas with universities with Spring stays later are not confronted with this influx. "

Can inform the prevention of the virus in autumn

The authors of the study hope that universities will use their research to implement virus prevention policies during the upcoming school year to avoid a spread from the similar community.

"At that time, the universities of the United States decide how to conduct in-person courses for the autumn semester 2020. Some institutions changed their academic calendars to eliminate breaks when students generally travel and to conclude classes in person before Thanksgiving, "says Niekamp. "Our results suggest that the reduction of long-distance student travels can reduce the spread of COVID-19 both within the university" and in the surrounding communities.

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