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Before the hurricanes season, you always want to be as prepared as possible, especially if you live in regions of the United States where these storms are widespread. Fortunately, we normally have some forecasts on the number of hurricanes We can expect - and 2024 is no exception. However, it stands out. According to the latest data, the forecasters anticipate an "extremely active" season with 23 named storms, including 11 hurricanes.

In relation: The meteorologist says that hurricanes "will become stronger and more easily" this season . AE0FCC31AE342FD3A1346EBB1F342FCB

The amazing number of storms provided that this season of the Hurricane of the Atlantic (flowing from June 1 to November 30) was announced for the first time by researchers from Colorado State University (CSU) in early April. From June 11 Press release , CSU researchers maintain this prediction.

Of the 11 potential hurricas, researchers note that five are likely to reach force majeure of hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5). "This could mean sustained winds of 111 MPH or more," the press release said.

At the end of last month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also predicted " Hurricane activity above normal in the Atlantic basin. ""

"Updated June forecasts take into account the newly available data at the start of the season," said CSU's latest press release. "Uncertainty remains in forecasts, because the atmosphere-ocean system can sometimes change considerably between this month and the peak of the Hurricane season of the Atlantic, which takes place from August-October."

According to CSU, between 1991 and 2020, the Average number of named storms Each season was around 14, with seven hurricanes in total and three major hurricanes. The 2024 prediction of 11 hurricanes is "the greatest number of hurricanes provided by the CSU from a perspective in June", wrote researchers.

Since CSU began to issue forecasts in June in 1984, the previous record prediction was 10 hurricanes in 2010 (with 12 observed) and 10 hurricanes in 2022 (when eight were observed).

In relation: 2024 The Hurricane season can be 170% more active - the most risky states .

The CSU team attributes the active season to the warmer waters of the Atlantic Ocean.

"A very hot Atlantic promotes an above -average season because hot ocean water serves as a fuel source for hurricanes," the press release said. "In addition, a hot Atlantic leads to a drop in atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere. The two conditions promote hurricanes."

However, the hurricanes season takes a late start. Yesterday, there was no named storm. But because the temperatures of the Caribbean water are already at levels that we see in September, "the ocean is certainly ready for a well -lived hurricanes season", director of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Michael Brennan Tell to Fox in an interview last week. He just needs the atmosphere "to go to cooperate," added Brennan.

According to CSU, the atmosphere will soon play Ball. The conditions of El Niño weaken in the Tropical Pacific and should move to the conditions of the Niña by the peak of the Hurricane season of the Atlantic. With the Niña, the western winds of higher level are reduced, which means less vertical wind shear, resulting in higher chances of hurricane formation and to be intense.

"Given the combined signals favorable to the hurricanes of an extremely warm Atlantic and the absence of El Niño, the forecast team has higher than normal confidence in this perspective than the Hurricane season of the Atlantic 2024 will be very active, "said the press release.

To make its predictions, CSU uses a statistical model and models that explain decades of historic seasons of hurricanes. However, researchers note that forecasts intend to "provide the best estimate" instead of an "exact measure". The University will publish updated forecasts on July 9 and August 6.