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Managing that we reserve a fierce season of hurricanes can be new inducing anxiety for many. But although we cannot prevent a devastating storm from ending, scientists compile research and offer their vision of the duration The coming year will be So people can at least be prepared. Unfortunately, one of the last forecasts now shows that the 2024 hurricane season could be almost twice as active as the standard. Read the rest to see what the evidence says and what states are most at risk.

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After a Very active year In 2023, we could be even more tropical storms in the coming months. On April 4, the Colorado State University published its Long -term forecasts For the next hurricane season, the forecasting of the activity of tropical cyclone in the Atlantic would be 170% compared to historical averages due to assembly indicators. AE0FCC31AE342FD3A1346EBB1F342FCB

"The temperatures of the sea surface in the east and the central Atlantic are currently at record hot levels and should
Stay well above average for the next hurricane season, "wrote the researchers." A warmer tropical Atlantic than normal provides a dynamic and thermodynamic environment more conducive to the training and intensification of hurricanes. ""

The forecasts have also recognized that it is likely that the current conditions of El Niño - which historically help to dissuade the formation of hurricanes - will give way to the Niña conditions which eliminate the protective wind at the end of summer or At the beginning of fall. The team added that the evidence offers researchers "confidence greater than normal" that a season of "well -rolled" hurricanes is likely.

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Due to the conditions, the forecasts also indicate that we can expect many more storms to be formed at the start of the hurricanes season. The prospects predict 23 tropical storms named will be formed, marking a drastic increase compared to the 13 which were formed last year, reports Fox Weather. It also beats the historic average number of 14.4 storms called.

Forecasts also call 11 hurricanes to train in the Atlantic, compared to almost 2023, when six were predicted, and beating the operating average of 7.2. And they will not only be higher: they will also probably be stronger, predictions saying that five major hurricanes will be category 3 or stronger. It is more than double of the two planned in 2023 and more than the historical average of 3.2.

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The latest data also shows which areas could be the most affected by a very active hurricane season. The researchers said there was 29% chance that a storm named passes in New Hampshire, while Rhode Island and Maine have 32 and 34% respectively. Meanwhile, New Jersey, Delaware and Connecticut are all 35% chance.

There is also 41% chance that New York will see at least one tropical storm, while Maryland has 47% chance. But the chances slip even higher in the south, with Virginia 65%; 72%Mississippi; Southern Caroline at 76%; and Alabama at 78%.

The most risky states all have percentages of 80 or more. They include Texas with 80%; Georgia at 82%; Louisiana 84%; North Caroline 85%; And Florida, which is 96% like to be hit with a storm named this season. In particular, Louisiana, Texas and Florida have the highest probability of being struck by a major hurricane, at 23, 25 and 44%, respectively.

In all cases, this represents a two-digit percentage increase compared to the climatological averages in each state, ranging from 10 to 20% above everyone's standard, in fox weather.

Long -term forecasts provide a basic perspective on What could happen in any season. However, even the researchers admit that nothing is fixed in stone.

"Obviously, there are still a lot of things that can change," Phil Klotzbach , the author of the forecasts, said USA today . But he added that even if ocean temperatures reduce their war and summer warming rate to the slowest ever recorded, it would always be the second hottest ocean surface temperature in four decades.

The other major consideration is that, although forecasts can predict the number of storms, they do not always provide information on the earth arter.

"[This] tells us nothing about the place where these storms can move," Robbie Berg , a hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center, said USA today . "So maybe we would be lucky and we would get them outside the Atlantic. But we don't know that, and that is why each year we still have to be prepared, because it is about From 10 storms or 20 storms, where they are formed, where they move, this is what is of extremely important importance. "