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It can be difficult to plan all The time that occurs in a week , not to mention what happens in the line in a few months. But with regard to extreme storms like hurricanes, it is advantageous to be prepared in the worst if the conditions suggest a particularly bad year. This is why researchers spend a lot of time painting through the data to obtain a good image of the level of storm activity that we could expect. Unfortunately, scientists are now warning the signs indicating an "explosive hurricane season" this year. Read the rest to see why the prospects are disastrous and what it could mean for you.

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Part of what shapes the current perspectives is taken from the previous storm seasons, especially last year. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa), 2023 ranked as the The most active fourth year For storms named to develop since 1950 with a total of 20, including seven hurricanes. This beats the overall average of 14 per season.

In its overview, the agency noted that record surface temperatures in certain parts of the Atlantic have helped storms to form and strengthen. Some experts have suggested that this extreme starting point could set up the following season as active .

"The Atlantic Ocean last year had very hot sea surface temperatures - in fact, record of hot in places", " Adam Lea , PHD, a climate physicist at TropicalStormrisk.com, said in an interview with Fox Weather in January. "With all this heat that has accumulated in the oceans, it will take a long time for all of this to dissipate."

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Unfortunately, the latest data can display previous predictions to be true. In an interview CBS Mornings March 12, meteorologist of the meteorological chain Stéphanie Abrams says the average world sea temperature is currently is 69.9 degrees , marking the highest point ever recorded.

Research has found signs of warming in many corners of the globe, including in the Arctic which could bear around 400,000 square miles of ice cover before the end of the decade. But in particular, Abrams said that the North Atlantic also tends above average to just over 68 degrees. This marks the highest start of the year never recorded for the point of origin of the tropical storm and the hurricane, already the corresponding conditions observed in May.

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But while surface temperatures are always higher than average in the Atlantic, there will be a notable difference with the hurricanes season last year. The researchers noted a Appearance of El Niño In 2023, a periodic cycle where the warmer waters developed off the coast of South America in the Pacific. AE0FCC31AE342FD3A1346EBB1F342FCB

Although it can sadly create extreme weather conditions in certain places, El Niño can also remove the development of hurricanes and earth Wind shear generation in the air, National Geographic reports. However, this will probably not be the case for this season.

Scientists noted that El Niño seems to have culminated and is give way to the Niña , his counterpart at cooler temperature, USA today reports. The phenomenon has the opposite effect, reducing the shear of the wind and making the conditions favorable to more numerous and powerful storms to form. The forecasts now suggest that there is a 75% chance that it will appear during the Hurricane season - which could be a dangerous mixture of conditions.

"The combination of Niña and record heat in the Atlantic could have an explosive season of hurricanes," Abrams told CBS.

According to the NOAA, the hurricane season officially starts on June 1 and ends on November 30. .

"The speed with which this transition occurs can also affect everything," Alex Dasilva , the forecastist of hurricanes with Accuweather, says National Geographic . "There is a delay time, so it can take a month or two so that the complete effects of the model are divided. So, while we expect the transition to happen in the middle of the summer, this n 'is perhaps not before the end of the summer or fall where we really see these effects in the Atlantic basin. "

But while long -term forecasts can give a better idea of the intensity of a given year, they do not offer a perfect vision of what will happen. This is why Dasilva says that it is preferable for people in areas subject to hurricanes to stay prepared at worst.

"If a tropical storm system enters this area, it could quickly intensify, potentially near the earth," he warned. "And that is why people must be on alert and prepare their hurricane plans. Because any system with this type of conditions can explode very quickly. This is what concerns us."

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