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Until now in 2024, winter time has already proven to be a handful by bringing Spreading freezing temperatures , a lot of snowfall, and flood the rains . But once the weather is starting to warm up, many impatiently start to anticipate the surprises that the hurricane season this year could bring. Experts often try to monitor the conditions to roughly determine the number of serious storms that we can expect. And so far, meteorologists say that there is evidence that 2024 "will amplify the activity of hurricanes" when the season starts. Read the rest to see how this season will be different and how it could affect you.

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Months after its end, the 2023 hurricane season remains notable for several reasons and could also give an overview of how this year could be played. Ocean record temperatures in the Atlantic have caused a Particularly active season , with 20 named storms forming during the six-month period, pushing it above the average race of 14, the Miami Herald reported. AE0FCC31AE342FD3A1346EBB1F342FCB

The intensity of the storms was also high in particular: seven systems have become hurricanes, three of which have reached category 3 or more. But despite the strong potential for disaster, Hurricane Idalia and a pair of tropical storms were the only storms that ever touched the earth in the United States, according to the Miami Herald .

"It was one for books," Phillip Klotzbach , a meteorologist and researcher at Colorado State University, told the newspaper. "But overall, a benign season."

Other experts have stressed that, although the conditions of El Niño observed last year generally reduce the number of storms, the extreme conditions seem to have rolled the normal effect it has. "Without this temperature contrast, if the Atlantic is very, very hot and the Pacific is hot, it does not drive these unfavorable winds in the same way," Ryan Truchelut , the chief meteorologist of the private weather for the Tiger weather service, told the Herald .

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Now, some experts warn that we should expect an equally active season this year. Some indicate the persistent high temperatures in the Atlantic which could help feed more storms .

"The Atlantic Ocean last year had very hot sea surface temperatures - in fact, record of hot in places", " Adam Lea , PHD, a climate physicist at TropicalStormrisk.com, said in an interview with Fox Weather on January 29. "With all this heat that has accumulated in the oceans, it will take a long time for all of this to dissipate."

Although the conditions can change, Lea says that current winter readings show that the ocean will probably not have enough time to release heat before the arrival of warmer time leading to the start of the hurricanes season in June.

"It's not just the tropical Atlantic right now," he told Fox Weather. "It is also the whole subtropical Atlantic.

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But while some of the persistent conditions of last year could contribute to another loaded season, another element will disappear which could worsen the perspectives. Namely, the warmer Pacific waters that generally create a stamp against the development of more active storms will not be there this coming season.

"The El Niño which is currently in place has now reached a summit and should gradually dissipate as we pass in the spring," Lea at Fox Weather told. "And when we enter the peak season of hurricanes from August towards the start, the signals are that the forecasts of the model I looked at suggest, operate, if necessary, a weak the niña in place Where we get up until August, September and October, which would also act to amplify the activity of hurricanes. "

These conditions could also mean more storms that have landed, as the Niña can Reduce crosses It sometimes puts storms, The Washington Post reports. In addition to the temperatures currently above average in the Gulf of Mexico, this could lead to a higher risk of historically vulnerable areas in the United States.

Despite current evidence, experts still warn that current forecasts are only an estimate and a hyperactive hurricanes season is not inevitable.

"Of course, there is still a certain uncertainty in the temperatures of the sea surface," Lea at Fox Weather told. "I mean, that does not mean that something could happen or change quickly in the atmosphere that could act to cool the temperatures of the sea surface. Temperal Atlantic temperatures will be warmer than the average . Maybe not as hot as they were recently, but even warmer than the average. "

But meteorologists now also speculate that, even beyond 2024, the theories previously held no longer apply to climate change.

"It is alarming for me that you cannot count on El Niño to reliably reduce the risk of hurricane. We have learned that this is subject to external factors that can prevail," said Truchelut Miami Herald . "The rules may no longer apply, unfortunately."

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