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Time this year was weird, to say the least. Rare Blizzard warnings in February in the south of California to the yellow sky of New York brought by Forest fire In June, it was difficult to follow all the unusual events. And winter is just as complex, forecasters having difficulty adapting to unpredictable climate change. El Niño and a lack of snowfall have been taken into account in weather forecasts, but now another phenomenon is considered: a polar vortex. Read the rest to find out more about the polar vortex and how it could affect our winter time.

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In June, the United States was alerted to the arrival of an El Niño. This climatic scheme is a natural phenomenon This can happen every two years and break normal weather conditions, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). AE0FCC31AE342FD3A1346EBB1F342FCB

"El Niño conditions are present and should gradually strengthen in the winter of the northern hemisphere," said the NOAA climate prediction center in an opinion During the summer.

More specifically, an El Niño event has the potential to cause warmer temperatures and more extreme weather conditions in fall and winter.

"Depending on its strength, El Nino can cause a range of impacts, such as the increase in the risk of strong precipitation and droughts in certain places around the world", " Michelle the happy , Climatartist of the Climate Prediction Center, said in a statement. "Climate change can exacerbate or mitigate certain impacts linked to El Nino. For example, El Nino could lead to new files for temperatures, especially in areas that already experience temperatures above average for El Nino."

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At the beginning of the month, the NOAA climate prediction center said it was planning " temperatures above average "For most of the United States, while we are heading for the holidays due to El Niño of this year. Consequently, the weather models show a very Low Snow Chance Before and Christmas for the second consecutive year, The Washington Post reported.

Those who dream of a white Christmas this year have already been informed that it is unlikely that their wishes will be answered. The NOAA defines a "white Christmas" like at least one thumb or more snow on the ground on the morning of December 25, but the chances of this are less than 2o percent during most of the country.

"National Weather Service meteorologists may dream of a white Christmas, but they do not prefer most of the United States," shared the Noaa in a Press release December 19 . "At least time is favorable to most people who intend to travel this year!"

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An El Niño is no longer the only event that experts must consider for our winter weather forecast. In the last NOAA climatic perspectives Released on December 21, the Climate Prediction Center said that the current El Niño "should be the main influence on the circulation scheme of average latitude and the temperature and precipitation of January associated".

But as Fox Weather reported , The Noaa forecasters said that a polar vortex could cause changes to its January and 3 months' perspectives.

"The polar vortex is a large area of low pressure and cold air surrounding the two poles of the earth. It still exists near the poles, but weakens in summer and is strengthening in winter," explains the Noaa on its National Weather Service website . "Several times during the winter in the northern hemisphere, the polar vortex will develop, sending the cold air to the south with the jet stream ... This occurs fairly regularly in winter and is often associated with large air epidemics Arctic in the United States. "

The forecasters believe that the polar vortex will create a disruption of the current weather flow during the new year. But they do not think that its impact will be as immediate or as large as many, according to Fox Weather.

"There is no individual correlation between what is happening with the polar vortex and our time, and also, there is a delay", " Judah Cohen , PHD, an atmospheric and environmental scientist who studies the polar vortex, told the media. "So, you have spoken of sudden stratospheric warming. It takes about two weeks for the effects of sudden stratospheric warming to have an impact on our weather. This is why it is very useful for forecasts - due to the delay. ""

The first month of the year is generally the coldest moment for a large part of the United States, Fox Weather reported. Even with the delay in the polar vortex, Cohen said he thought that the cold air will eventually arrive across the country. But the event should "not be in front of its full potential", according to the scientist.

In other words, while you can expect the weather to be colder in January, in December thanks to the polar vortex, temperatures will probably not drop that Far, although the complete extent of these impacts remains unknown.

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